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| | Author | Messages | |
bear down
Posts:59
 | | 11/28/2007 7:32 PM |
 Alert | This is article is actually so misleading because they state that Maricopa has a 57 month supply based on the fact that only 20 were supposedly sold last month so they took the current inventory of 1,140 houses that are currently on the market and divided by the 20. It's misleading and makes the real estate look far more dire than what it truly is. It sheds an even worse light and could potentially scare buyers considering moving here. Is there a re agent that could get some data that could refute the "57" month supply statement and we could possibly get them to retract?
Wednesday, November 28, 2007 - 9:05 AM MST
Phoenix-area home permits hit 15-year low, but market may be stabilizingThe Business Journal of Phoenix - by Jan Buchholz Phoenix Business Journal
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Residential building permits are at their lowest point in 15 years, according to the Phoenix Housing Market Letter published Wednesday by RL Brown Housing Reports.
In October, 1,325 permits were issued compared with 2,341 for October 2006. Though the drop is significant, the report suggests that home builders are selling off excessive inventory "showing signs of a stabilizing of the new home market in the metro Phoenix region."
There were 3,159 new-home closings in October, a drop from 4,451 in October 2006, but a "very slight uptick from the previous seven months," the report stated.
Meanwhile, the resale home market continues to tank. There were 3,533 resales in October compared with 6,357 in October 2006, a 44 percent drop. Condo conversions fared even worse, just 261 sales were recorded in October compared with 674 in October 2006, a 61 percent drop.
The report notes that the supply of unsold spec homes is being reduced by 1,500 to 2,000 units per month and that a healthier supply-demand balance will be achieved in five to seven months.
"While that is good news, it does not mean that new-home sales activity will then be a cake walk á la 2005," the report stated.
Meanwhile, the report predicts that the housing market will be slower to recover in communities on the fringe of the metro area, such as the city of Maricopa where 1,140 properties are for sale. Just 20 of those closed last month. Those numbers, according to the report, "represent a 57-month supply."
Still, the report warns against generalizing about the housing market: "Stability will vary from local area to area."
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| | bear down
Posts:59
| | 11/29/2007 7:47 AM |
Alert | | They divided the 20 sales in what was supposed to be last month and divided by the 1,140 that we currently have for sale on the MLS. It computes exactly to 57. The most unfortunate part is that this publication is the most widely read and respected publication by the business community in the metropolitan area. | | | |
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| | Reagan
Posts:697
| | 11/29/2007 3:26 PM |
Alert | Looks like right now there are 1149 active listings on the market. Since the first of this month up until what is reporting thru today, there has been 46 sold. That is currently about a 25 month supply. I can check again and see how many more close after the end of the month when everything is submitted to MLS, and get a better total for the entire month.
Side note, there are also 121 homes in pending status, which the closing dates could be anytime, probably in the next month or two. There are also another 5 homes in active contingency status.
I also show last month, (from October 1st thru October 31st) there was 61 sold properties.
*** This is just the numbers from the MLS for the city of Maricopa, and doesn't include New Home Sales *** | |
Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence.
Reagan, Los Angeles Times, January 7, 1970 | |
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| | Bridog
Posts:54
| | 11/30/2007 1:40 AM |
Alert | | Exactly, only a few of the builders actually put the homes on the MLS. They even leave them listings up when the home is sold, since it is a newbuild anyway. DRHorton in Senita probably closed 100 homes last month alone | | | |
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| | LeonPotter
Posts:451
| | 11/30/2007 11:28 AM |
Alert | The numbers are fun to look at and to see trends. But,if they were "true", homes would still be selling at the same pace 1 1/2 years ago. Afterall, the pace then was an offer would be put in just as the "for sale" sign was up.
Yes, homes are generally for sale longer. There are more homes on the MLS. There are fewer closings. But, any of that could change at anytime. By the time most of us notice it, the time has past. | |
You may remember this from the original 85239:
Proverbs 22:7
The rich ruleth over the poor and the borrower is servant to the lender. | |
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| | azappraiser
Posts:30
| | 12/09/2007 1:29 PM |
Alert | The article is misleading due to the fact that the calculation used is incorrect. What they are trying to indicate is the Absorption Rate. That is how many months it will take for the market to absorb the properties currently on the market. The calculation is: total number of homes sold (Jan 1 to current date) divided by 12 to determine number of homes sold per month. Total number of homes on market (active/contingent) divided by number of homes sold per month equals absorption rate in months.
As of Dec 1 there were 653 homes sold in 2007 which comes to 54.42 per month. There were 1036 homes on the market, divided by 54.42 equals 19.04 months of inventory. This information was taken from MLS but does not include properties offered for sale by owners or any other properties not listed in the MLS system. It also does not include properties sold that were not listed nor properties sold that have not been recorded in county records yet.
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